The holiday season is one of the busiest times of the year for road travel across the United States. CMT.AI’s US Fall and Winter Holiday Road Risk Report reveals that the surge in travel comes with spikes in risky driving.

The report examines driving behaviors on Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Year’s Eve, and New Year’s Day. Drivers are more distracted on all seven holidays, speed more on six, and brake suddenly during key travel periods.

How does road risk change during the holidays?

Drawing on more than 312 million trips from 2021 through 2025, the analysis compares distraction, speeding, and hard braking on each holiday with similar non-holiday days in the surrounding weeks to understand how risky driving changes.

Road risk patterns reflect how people celebrate. Distraction and speeding surge during daytime travel on Thanksgiving and Christmas. On Halloween and New Year’s Eve, distraction and sudden braking rise as evening celebrations get underway. Risk also extends past midnight, into the hours when drivers return home.

Across the seven holidays, increased distraction contributes to an estimated 1,930 additional crashes and 1,080 injuries in a typical year.

Download the report

Executive summary

The holidays send millions of drivers onto the roads. CMT.AI’s analysis shows that risky driving surges on those days. The shifts vary by holiday and time of day, but several patterns emerge.

• Distraction increases on every holiday. Drivers spend more time interacting with their phones across all seven holidays we analyzed, with full-day increases ranging from 2.9% on Christmas Eve to 15.1% on Thanksgiving compared with similar non-holiday days.
• Higher levels of distraction during these holidays add an estimated 1,930 crashes and 1,080 injuries per year. The full-day increases in distraction add an estimated 510 additional crashes on Thanksgiving, 420 on Christmas Day, and 330 on New Year’s Day in a typical year.
• Risk patterns reflect how the US celebrates each holiday: On holidays centered on evening gatherings, like Halloween and New Year’s Eve, risky driving builds as celebrations get underway. On holidays with gatherings throughout the day, like Christmas and Thanksgiving, levels increase in the morning and remain elevated, particularly during key travel periods.
• Speeding rises most during daytime travel. Speeding increases on six holidays overall, with the largest rises during morning and afternoon travel. On Thanksgiving and Christmas Day, it more than doubles during the day, then eases in the evening.
• Road risk extends into the overnight hours. Following Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, and New Year’s Eve gatherings, distraction and hard braking rise after midnight as drivers head home.

Key findings

Halloween

Distraction increases 5.9% during peak trick-or-treating hours from 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.

Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving sees the highest increase in distraction among the holidays, up 15.1%. Speeding more than doubles in the morning and afternoon. 

Black Friday

Distraction increases 10.1% from 12:00 a.m. to 3:00 a.m. following Thanksgiving. It remains 9.2% higher in the afternoon.

Christmas Eve

Distraction spikes 9.5% from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. as drivers finish errands and head to gatherings. 

Christmas Day

Distraction is up 24.5% during morning travel, from 8:00 a.m. to noon. Speeding surges 111% from 11:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. 

New Year’s Eve

As midnight approaches, distraction and hard braking peak at 11:00 p.m., up 12.7% and 21.9%.

New Year’s Day

After the ball drops, distraction spikes 28.1% from 2:00 to 5:00 a.m. Hard braking surges 29.9% at 1:00 a.m. 

Download CMT.AI’s US Fall & Winter Holiday Road Risk Report to explore hourly trends across all seven holidays and find out when roads are most risky on the holidays.